The investor who made 900% in 2008 has a new big short: private credit

Lee Robinson turned a $20 million bet against subprime mortgages into $200 million during the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he's sounding the alarm on a different corner of the market: private credit. But instead of shorting private credit directly, Robinson is betting against some of its biggest backers — insurance companies like MetLife, Lincoln National, and Berkshire Hathaway. His concern? Insurers have increasingly loaded up on private credit investments as the $1.8 trillion asset class exploded in size. Robinson believes markets are underestimating the risk of future write-downs if cracks begin to appear. The trade is gaining traction on Wall Street, with hedge funds and major banks reportedly seeing increased demand for protection against insurer credit risk. Robinson says today's market feels eerily similar to 2008: "Back then, volatility was incredibly low despite growing risks. It feels a little like that now." His view isn't that insurers are headed for collapse — but that investors may be too complacent about the risks building beneath the surface. If private credit experiences its first major stress test, Robinson believes insurers could be where the pain shows up first.