After the close update

After the close update Three things the desk is looking at right now Number one is the Fed's credibility Warsh is Mr Laissez-faire right now That means he's just taking his hands off and he's letting the bond market drive the freaking bus And the problem with the bond market when you give the reins a little too much to those bond traders they're going to take advantage of it And that's why the 30-year is at the highest in 19 years You heard it here first So we've got a situation where rates are high oil continues to creep up higher after this last trough The war isn't over and stocks have really no direction So the sell off yesterday was pretty extreme some call spreads and caught some quick upside on SPX We think this is going to continue tomorrow But the big picture here is what does this mean for semis What does this mean for the AI hardware trade Is this going to continue to run I think there's still a big question mark And that's why you saw some defensive sectors perk up yesterday Things like Staples health care this stuff blows out when the leadership is under pressure The second thing we're looking at is VIX EQ minus VIX This is starting to come down And you might say oh well that's just the market catching its breath This starts to happen when stocks start to become correlated again And they usually become correlated on the way down especially towards the end of a cycle So we're not so comfortable there We'd still like to see bid in AI We're not seeing to get upside on SPX right now until we see a little bit firmer footing in AI And finally dollar yen If you've been sitting like us just waiting for this thing to crack it cracked today There's been whispers of intervention If you look at the chart it looks like Dollar yen got actually smoked what 162 to 158 in about a couple of minutes Totally insane And the notable thing here is Japan did this on the same day as their rate decision So they really just like to batch the work and get it all done in one shot But I think they were aiming for maximum shock and awe in the market interventions cost them about $50 $60 billion And they have to sell their treasuries So as if treasuries needed any sold probably 30 to 50 yards That will be confirmed later We don't have the official read on that But we're in a market that is somehow starting to find some calm footing after an aggressively volatile week Negative gamma reigns supreme now So moves are exaggerated in either direction We're calm today We think because of the data light schedule tomorrow it's going to be calm tomorrow But don't get used to it Next week's a new week Apple and Amazon reported these are going to offset each Tomorrow we're looking for constructive open Any questions you have Click the "LINK" for our full market analysis Educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not a recommendation or solicitation to buy/sell any security. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Any examples, tickers, or scenarios are illustrative only. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.