If you want to get rich, don't buy the S&P.

@nicholas_crown

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The Crown Macro Letterseen in 7 videos →https://letter.nicholascrown.com/subscribe?utm_source=tiktok&utm_medium=bio&utm_campaign=subscribe ↗

Why it worked

The video uses a strong, contrarian hook that challenges conventional financial wisdom, immediately grabbing the viewer's attention. The creator maintains high engagement by using a whiteboard to visualize his argument, making complex financial concepts feel accessible and urgent.

Summary

The creator argues that the commonly cited 12% annual return of the S&P 500 is misleading and that passive buy-and-hold investing is unlikely to generate significant wealth in the current market environment. He uses the example of a Ferrari to illustrate his point about seeking better investment strategies and directs viewers to his newsletter for more macro analysis.

Structure

1Contrarian hook about S&P 500
2Debunking the 12% return myth
3Explaining current market multiples
4The reality of forward returns
5

Original caption

The S&P's "12% annual returns" are a myth. You might just be better off buying that supercar. Click the link in my Profile to get The Crown Macro Letter

More from @nicholas_crown

Their other posts in the index, biggest breakout first.

The Ferrari analogy

6Call to action for the newsletter

Product placement

The creator mentions his newsletter, The Crown Macro Letter, in the caption and directs viewers to the link in his profile.

Call to action

Click the link in my Profile to get The Crown Macro Letter

On-screen text

If you want to get rich, don't buy the S&P. Buy a Ferrari. Let me explain. Every time a supercar drives by, there is a cranky buy and hold investor saying, "If they only took that money and put in the S&P 500 for 10 years, it would be worth millions." This investor, while he thinks he sounds smart, is using the internet's most favorite piece of fake data, the 12% annualized return in the S&P 500. The problem with this, and even if we cherry-picked, the real return is more like 7% and that is backward-looking into an environment that looks nothing like the one we're in right now. Right now, multiples are trading around 21x. At high multiples, the forward return is more like 2% to 3% In real terms, that's 0% or even negative. That means that the biggest myth of getting rich from buy and hold is officially dead. And you might as well just buy a Ferrari, because the 458 Speciale returned 14% last year alone according to Hagerty. In this scenario, at least you'd have something cool to brag about. All right, I have to admit something. Am I really telling you to buy a Ferrari and assuming that the Ferrari price will appreciate into infinity? Of course not. But what I am telling you is if you expect to get rich from lazy buy and hold investing in an environment with high multiples and enormous chaos in the market, you are going to be sorely disappointed. You will never have Ferrari money. And I dare you: Go ask the guy in the Ferrari how he got rich. I can assure you he's not going to say buy and hold investing.

Transcript

If you want to get rich, don't buy the S&P. Buy a Ferrari. Let me explain. Every time a supercar drives by, there is a cranky buy and hold investor saying, "If they only took that money and put in the S&P 500 for 10 years, it would be worth millions." This investor, while he thinks he sounds smart, is using the internet's most favorite piece of fake data, the 12% annualized return in the S&P 500. The problem with this, and even if we cherry-picked, the real return is more like 7% and that is backward-looking into an environment that looks nothing like the one we're in right now. Right now, multiples are trading around 21x. At high multiples, the forward return is more like 2% to 3%. In real terms, that's 0% or even negative. That means that the biggest myth of getting rich from buy and hold is officially dead. And you might as well just buy a Ferrari, because the 458 Speciale returned 14% last year alone according to Hagerty. In this scenario, at least you'd have something cool to brag about. All right, I have to admit something. Am I really telling you to buy a Ferrari and assuming that the Ferrari price will appreciate into infinity? Of course not. But what I am telling you is if you expect to get rich from lazy buy and hold investing in an environment with high multiples and enormous chaos in the market, you are going to be sorely disappointed. You will never have Ferrari money. And I dare you: Go ask the guy in the Ferrari how he got rich. I can assure you he's not going to say buy and hold investing.