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COVID-19 is rising nationally but from a low baseline. As of the latest, CDC estimated infections were growing or likely growing in 47 states, led generally by the South and West," Dr. Syra Madad, infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard's Belfer Center and chief biopreparedness officer for New York City's public hospitals, told USA TODAY. "The increase became apparent in parts of the South and West during July and more clearly nationwide by late July and early August. What causes the 'summer surge'? When COVID-19 first came on the scene in 2020, it was novel - meaning it was new to humans and our immune systems, which had no frame of reference to fight it. As time has gone on, our bodies have had time to catch up and infection patterns have settled into something more predictable, similar to the seasonal trends we've come to expect with other infectious diseases like the flu.