@quantsophia — 126x breakout

Loading video…

3 things I wish I knew before I started trading

@quantsophia

2.0K followers · usually 197 views a post

Views

24.9K

Likes

1.7K

Comments

105

Why it worked

The post provides high-value, dense educational content that appeals to the creator's target audience of aspiring traders, encouraging saves and shares for future reference.

Summary

The creator shares three mathematical formulas—Expected Value, Bayes Theorem, and the Kelly Criterion—that are essential for successful trading. The post aims to educate followers on risk management and probability-based decision-making.

Structure

1Hook slide introducing the topic of trading knowledge
2Explanation of Expected Value as a trade filter
3Explanation of Bayes Theorem for updating probabilities
4Explanation of the Kelly Criterion for position sizing
5Call to action to share and save the post

Product placement

ApolloAlpha: The creator's bio link points to this product, which is described as a tool to 'Predict Support & Resistance, Weekly Forecasts'. It is not mentioned or shown in the slides, so it does not ACT in this video. none.

Call to action

share and save this post!

On-screen text

3 things I wish I knew before I started trading share and save this post! 1) Expected Value EV = (Pwin x W) - (Ploss x L) EV lets us know if a trade is worth taking. Take only positive EV trades net of fees and friction 2) Bayes Theorem P(A|B) = (P(B|A) x P(A)) / P(B) Bayesian reasoning is the science of updating your odds as new information arrives. Instead of looking at a static win rate, you look at the probability of an outcome given a specific new condition. 3) Kelly Criterion f = p - (q/b) The Kelly Criterion is a formula that tells you exactly what percentage of your account to risk on a single trade to maximize your long-term wealth compounding, while mathematically eliminating the risk of total ruin.

Original caption

3 formulas that got me to trading full time right out of university