Hook

Do you want to know what Goldman Sachs tell their richest clients in terms of what to invest in in the stock market? I'll show you. I was at a lunch with Lord Jim O'Neill, the chair, the then chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management about, I know, 12 years ago. And I was sitting next to him at Goldman's offices because I was a hedge fund manager, we get invited to such things. And they did a presentation and this is one of the slides. It's from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The source is from Quantum Database. And it's the formula they use for picking stocks. And what they found is that based on cash return on capital invested, the companies in the top 25% on that formula deliver a 30% per annum return per annum. Sorry, I repeated myself there a bit. The formula was actually invest invented by Deutsche Bank and now Goldman's use it. And it's not every stock and not every year. In the financial crisis, no companies got 30% and the whole portfolio dropped, but on average over the long term, 30% per annum. Post tax cash flow available to providers of capital. In other words, the cash and divided by the capital invested in the business. So if you've got a small company that makes sweets, let's say, and it invested in these machines to make sweets, those machines might be 100 years old. You don't need to keep paying for them, but the cash and the kids who buy those sweets keep coming through the door. So that's going to have a high cash return on capital invested and that company may well generate 30% per annum compared to some other company. Don't be fooled into thinking, no, but I know companies which are burning cash on the brink of bankruptcy and suddenly something somebody comes along and their share price goes up tenfold. That's a whole different kettle of fish and you're not going to find too many of those and the basket of stocks which cause you to lose using that method will be far greater than the one or two winners. Anyway, that's what Goldman Sachs do.
Their other posts in the index, biggest breakout first.