Chamath: AI Has Two Fatal Flaws

🤖 Chamath Palihapitiya on AI's two fatal flaws — and why a trillion-dollar "trough of disillusionment" is coming: "We have done so much in AI, okay, we have. But we are training models to understand patterns that we have seen. We do not think from first principles. What's missing is being able to translate that in two dimensions." "Dimension number one is long horizon tasks are fundamentally still a joke. It doesn't work. And I don't care what anybody says. Don't show me a stupid eval. Don't tell me about some dumb script you ran for 48 hours. That's all bullshit. Long horizon tasks are not well handled. They just don't work." "And second is complex problems also don't work. They are not well addressed and they're not well handled. Why is this important? If AI looks like any other technology, we're gonna go through the rise, right? The initial hype cycle. We're gonna see a natural contraction because somehow, somewhere, something is going to fail. We are all gonna see this." "And then that's what's called the trough of disillusionment, I think. The business, the MBA folks will confirm if that's true. And then you see the slow gradual uptake of the real final solution. Happened in the internet, happened before. It's happened in many, many, many cases. The problem with this is that we though are spending hundreds and hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars to try to figure out how to cross this chasm. So what do we do? If we don't figure this out, people will hit this trough of disillusionment and say this was a joke. I think we need to be able to take AI into very complicated environments and make it work." — Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital & 8090, speaking at Stanford AI Club #ai #artificialintelligence #chamath #stanford #venturecapital