What SpaceX stock may imply about the AI bubble:

This is the most important finance chart of the year. Specifically, SpaceX is down 19% from IPO and it has wild implications for the rest of the AI market and for tech in general. A conversation I've been having with a lot of venture capitals recently is that we all expected SpaceX to keep going up for at least a couple of months, even though fundamentally we all knew it was overvalued. And the stock continues to plunge even with good news around Starship and the heat shield holding up as well. Why is this matter to you? Well, a lot of people are using SpaceX as a sign of the IPO window was reopening. If the IPO windows actually open, there's a lot more money flowing back into the ecosystem, there's a lot more money going back into VC funds, and then there's a lot more money available for startups. But if SpaceX stock is going down, a lot of these firms who have not gone public yet, a lot of your late stage AI, data companies, etc. may not go public anytime soon. Or they do go public and their stock collapses along with the rest of the bubble. Where I struggle with this is that AI still feels like it's on an adoption side, even though it's not very early from a funding side. However, even when I think about it like that, this is actually still a lot earlier than you might think. This graph is the NASDAQ overlaid with the dot-com bubble and overlaid with the AI since the launch of ChatGPT. Notice we are still very far away from that actual peak and then the collapse subsequently. So I don't know if I have a real answer. And this is why I don't trade public, I don't do a lot of late stage deals because I just don't understand and it's much easier for me to invest around it and invest in long-term macro trends. I'm curious to hear you all thought because obviously this affects not just me in the startup because system an