SPY has been basically in shambles and we were waiting for a big drop. However, Trump just shocked everyone not really with a taco. Now, again, he's basically bombed Iran for like 10 to 10 days straight. Clockwork, boom boom boom, right? Now, going into Friday, he said don't do it. He's basically bombed Iran for like 10 to 10 days straight. Clockwork, boom boom boom, right? Now, going into Friday, he said don't do it. I think it's because inflation numbers are tracking back to the upside and the markets are kind of waver. Not intense yet, but it did start to waver. We haven't broken any major levels yet. But weakness then was showing up. Trump told the military to not conduct strikes and he's trying to offer a new deal. Sees fire. Something along the lines with Iran. Will it work? Iran said they're not doing anything. We'll see what happens, okay? That's where we're right now. What does this mean? In my opinion, on SPY, especially QQQ, you can notice it looks far worse. This could be better. Okay, so let's talk about what to expect going into Monday. Number one, if you stay below this level, 686, 687, I'm I'm still bearish. I'm still looking for downside. I'm looking for the 100 day moving average. I don't think you're going to open there. We'll see unless more bad news comes out, okay? But you get above 686, 687 to be safe. You're looking back towards 694. You have a gap all the way down to 704, 705. In my opinion, you're going to start moving there quick. You're going to start moving there aggressively. You also want to see what's happening with oil too, to confirm this thesis. Because oil sitting basically right at the 100 MA, getting back below this, you're looking back down to 81. Those are the two things that will confirm. Then it goes more into semi's can they start catching strength. You want to see Micron show continuation. We saw what happens to Micron gets weakness. That was the really the weakest name in semis on Friday. They carried the market to the downside into new local lows. So again, more downside here. Can you start balancing back up to really get back to our target of around 1090 that we previously discussed? If you have a gap all around 870, you'll notice Nvidia has remained the most strength here, right? Holding the 100 MA. You need to get above you have a level right there at 212. You can break up the key level indicator here as well. And you can see right there, 212.20. Once you get above that, you can start moving back to 220, possibly even higher. So you're not in a terrible, terrible place. The other thing you have to consider is earnings. We saw Google showcase earnings, scary, right? In my opinion, Google's earnings were bad. They were they delayed guidance and then the negative free cash flow. That was the bad look. Their cloud revenue, fantastic growth. They're making money from AI now with solid growth. But they're all going to increase capex, which is highly likely, which could point to more Mag7 names with negative free cash flow. With the exception of maybe Apple and and Nvidia. It starts to raise question marks and it could create some fear and some uncertainty. What I'm looking at, what I'm watching for this week, but I will say Trump's talk puts us in a much better situation. In my opinion, Google's earnings were bad. They were they delayed guidance and then the negative free cash flow. That was the bad look. Their cloud revenue, fantastic growth. They're making money from AI now with solid growth. But they're all going to increase capex, which is highly likely, which could point to more Mag7 names with negative free cash flow. With the exception of maybe Apple and and Nvidia. It starts to raise question marks and it could create some fear and some uncertainty. What I'm looking at, what I'm watching for this week, but I will say Trump's talk puts us in a much better situation.
