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Their other posts in the index, biggest breakout first.
I basically spend my free time reading up on all the expert takes on predictions about AI. What we can expect in the next year, five years, ten years. What are the AI leaders saying? What are lead academics, journalists saying? What are government officials saying? And my hot take in a high level summary is it's gonna get better. The economy is going to grow in the short term. So probably we'll see the S&P 500 stocks increase in value significantly in 2026. But that is like ghost GDP. It's because the companies are able to lay off people and substitute paying jobs for AI. Maybe 10% of their workforce they'll be able to substitute with AI. As a result, their their profit is gonna increase significantly. Right? So a lot of the software companies, white collar companies, anything legal, insurance claims, SaaS companies, they're probably gonna lay off around 10% of their staff, report higher bottom line, report higher profit in the short term. But those 10% of people that get laid off are not buying anything. So this is like ghost GDP. It looks like high output, it looks like the economy is doing well, it looks like businesses are doing really well. But in reality, the money gain from putting AI agents into jobs that humans used to have does not flow back into the economy. Cause those 10% of people that got fired were buying things. They were buying lattes and houses and cars and clothes. So the money was flowing back into the economy and feeding other businesses. But if AI is taking those just 10% of jobs, the money is stuck, it's frozen. The profit as a result of that productivity goes to the company owners that are using the AI. And so those few millionaires, billionaires, CEOs are not spending the same way those 10% would spend. And so after year one, year two, the economy suffers in a pretty massive way. So unless AI starts buying stuff at the rate that humans buy stuff, we're in trouble. All those companies that benefit from AI are going to actually suffer as a result of AI because there's not going to be anyone to buy their products. Then what happens? I don't know. But I am trying to study what the smartest people are saying and tell you, because I want to know. What do you guys think?