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Do you really think that SpaceX is really worth $1.75-$2 Trillion dollars when it goes public? I mean, people are saying. They're saying 1.8 to 2 trillion, it's what's going public. Crazy. People will pay for that at IPO, it's what they it's expected, it's being speculated right now. But whether it's worth that much, not for me. I wouldn't buy it at that value. The the the bottom line is this. I mean, there's a lot of buzz about it, you know. I mean, if you look at, you know, my understanding of SpaceX, you know, the primary revenue generator for SpaceX is primary. There's so many things involved in this IPO, in this company. Okay? You got Starlink, right? You got the the the the the the the the rockets, right? The payload delivery, you know, into space, right? Um, and then you have XAI, right, which is Grok and then X, right? And, you know, Elon Musk has kept this company private for so long, right? And it's profitable, you know, I'll get to that in a second. And why do you need to to go IPO now? Because he needs money for all these other things he wants to do, you know, a space-based data center, all that. So, the point being is that the valuation of the company, you know, valuation of companies when they, you know, out there in the in the equities market and stock market are based upon its revenue potential, growth of revenues, growth of earnings, right? SpaceX going public, you know, anywhere between like 1.8 to 2 trillion, whatever it may be, is insane the valuation. You know, it's going through it and so so if you look at, you know, when you buy something, you want to you're buying something for its how it makes money. Company makes for what you're going to end up paying for SpaceX, what's expected at 1.8 to 2 trillion, right? You're going to be paying way more than you pay for other companies that make way more money. I'll give you an example. Okay, this is what we use. We use rev, you know, revenue multiples. Let's keep it simple, right? How many times is the value of the company based upon its its its earnings, right? So, like Nvidia, it's valued at $5 trillion, right? Um, that's 24 times its gross its its last year's revenue. 24 times. Okay? SpaceX, based upon what you can see in the S, you know, in the in the filings and all that, if it goes at 1.75 trillion, that's 110 times its revenues. Wow. Okay? Now you look at other companies here that are making money. Now when I buy stock, I like a company that's got earnings. That's why you buy it because a stock's value is based on the the cash flow of future earnings, right? Google, 11 times. you know, uh things Amazon, four times. Broadcom, 31 times. That's speculative. Tesla's only 16 times. 110 times its gross revenues. So what does that tell you? You know, yes, simple, you know, to me, anecdotally, it's overvalued. Is it really, you know, the bear the bulls will say, the bulls, the supporters of SpaceX will say, this is all for the future, right? You're going to get data centers in space, you know, you're going to get Starlink's got the largest number of satellites total up there flying around up there. More than 70% of the satellites in orbit are Starlink. So, you know, I believe I do agree. Starlink has a lot of growth potential, but at 100 times, 110 times revenue, it's kind of scary. Now if you go look at the earnings, like the profit, you know, which what we call EBITDA, right? Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, right? That's so there are two things you look at a company. You look at the revenues, which is what we call top line, and then you look at EBITDA, which is your what net profit adjusted, right? And I give you an example. Nvidia's uh EBITDA multiple is 38 times. It's valued at only 38 times its EBITDA, its net profit, right? The SpaceX valuation at 1.75 trillion, 220 times. That's a and Tesla's only 145 times. Now remember, everyone was looking at Tesla's valuation as future value. It's going to have robots, robo-taxis, and all that. Nothing that it has right now. It's future, right? Do you believe in that? I don't know. You know, do I want to pay for something that expensive today based upon potentially what can happen on the upside 5, 10 years from now? Oh, you want to buy a company that's already killing it right now. Right? To me, it's better risk management to buy companies that are already making money. That's just me. Okay? Right. Um, so, you know, I think the valuations is just too lofty right now. This you're going to have if you think about it, you're going to have a trillion dollar company that could potentially be losing money with all the expansion that they have to do. Now, is again, I'm just I'm not the general public here. I'm way more risk-averse and way more conservative when I do my equity picks, especially on an IPO. I always say, I don't buy IPOs right out of the gate because it's too volatile. You don't know what's going on, you know, especially with SpaceX. Like, no, I'm not I'm not going to throw money into the coffer into the the game right now because I don't, first of all, it's going to be you're going to have to people like me will pay the highest price, right? I'm a retail investor. So, any means I figure out to get in now is going to be at the top of the valuation. I'm definitely not going to touch it right now. That's just me.
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