Google just lost its biggest buyer

@nicholas_crown

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Nicholas Crown is the internet’s most trusted, independent voice in financial markets, featured in Forbes, Inc., and Entrepreneur.

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Why it worked

The video taps into a common interest in stock market analysis and uses a relatable analogy ('whale', 'floor and bar') to explain a complex financial concept. The creator's background as an ex-trader lends credibility, and the call to action for a newsletter provides a clear next step for engaged viewers.

Summary

The video explains how Google's stock price has been supported by its own bond sales and stock buybacks, which have recently ceased. The creator suggests this shift, coupled with high-interest bond issuances, creates a new risk profile for Google's stock, implying potential for deeper dips and rallies only when AI investments show returns.

Structure

1Google's stock price historically supported by buybacks
2Google has stopped buying back stock
3

Original caption

We're always looking for flows like this

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Product placement

Google (company): Acts - Google sells bonds and conducts stock buybacks. Removing this would change the video's topic. Google (company): Acts - Google's AI build-out is mentioned as a factor in its financial strategy. Removing this would change the video's topic. Coca-Cola (brand): Appears - A Coca-Cola truck is visible in the background. Removing this would not change what happens in the video.

Call to action

Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis

On-screen text

Google just lost its biggest buyer Google's stock price has been held up for more than a decade by one whale and that whale just left the market But stay with me here because this exit was hiding in plain sight I spent nearly a decade trading relative value at two of the largest banks in New York and this is the kind of flow that gets repriced well before you see a headline on it half of 2026 Google sells $56 billion worth of bonds have a 6.5% coupon with maturities running out to 2066. So that is a 40-year borrow on a company that's sitting on $100 billion in cash and you don't borrow money like that unless you are replacing something So here's what Google replaced For 10 years the biggest and most reliable buyer of Google stock There were 28 billion in buybacks in the first half of last year alone but in the first half of 2026 that number went to zero So the whale that's missing in action right now is Google But that's not even the crazy part They didn't just leave the market Google moved that cash to the other side of its own balance sheet So for a decade the stock had a floor under it and no bar above it and now it has a bar and no floor The bar of course being the 6.5% coupon that the AI build-out has to out-earn every year for 40 years So we expect dips to run deeper than we're used to and rallies to only hold when capex starts to show a return If you want to see how we're trading the rest of the AI build-out we send out strategy to 70,000 subscribers every week to get it in your inbox and to upgrade how you're trading Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis Educational only. Based on hypothetical model results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Google's going to have to earn it out of this and so that's how we're going to trade

Transcript

Google's stock price has been held up for more than a decade by one whale and that whale just left the market. But stay with me here because this exit was hiding in plain sight. I spent nearly a decade trading relative value at two of the largest banks in New York and this is the kind of flow that gets repriced well before you see a headline on it. Half of 2026 Google sells $56 billion worth of bonds. Some of these guys have a 6.5% coupon with maturities running out to 2066. So that is a 40-year borrow on a company that's sitting on $100 billion in cash and you don't borrow money like that unless you are replacing something. So here's what Google replaced. For 10 years the biggest and most reliable buyer of Google stock. There were 28 billion in buybacks in the first half of last year alone. But in the first half of 2026 that number went to zero. So the whale that's missing in action right now is Google. But that's not even the crazy part. They didn't just leave the market. Google moved that cash to the other side of its own balance sheet. So for a decade the stock had a floor under it and no bar above it and now it has a bar and no floor. The bar of course being the 6.5% coupon that the AI build-out has to out-earn every year for 40 years. So we expect dips to run deeper than we're used to and rallies to only hold when capex starts to show a return. If you want to see exactly how we're trading the rest of the AI build-out we send out strategy to 70,000 subscribers every week to get it in your inbox and to upgrade how you're trading. Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis. Educational only. Based on hypothetical model results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Google's going to have to earn it out of this and so that's how we're going to trade.