The video effectively uses current market events and relatable examples (like consumer spending) to explain complex financial concepts. The creator's confident and direct delivery, combined with a clear call to action for their market analysis letter, likely resonated with viewers seeking financial insights.
Summary
The video discusses the recent market volatility, highlighting how the Treasury's attempt to lower yields was quickly reversed. It points out the struggles in various stock sectors, the rise in crude oil prices, and the resulting pressure on rates, leaving investors uncertain. The creator suggests that the "distillate trade" is a key area to watch and advises against trusting the Fed or the Treasury, implying that their current strategies are unsustainable.
Structure
1Treasury's failed attempt to lower yields
2Market reversal and stock sector downturn
Original caption
Don't trust the Fed. Don't trust the Treasury. And don't trust that this war is going to end anytime soon.
More from @nicholas_crown
More breakout videos from this creator.
3
Rising crude oil prices and pressure on rates
4Consumer spending weakness and impact on retail stocks
5Gold's resilience and the "distillate trade"
6Advice to distrust financial institutions and the war's impact
Product placement
Forbes: APPEARS - A magazine cover is visible in the background. Removing it would not change what happens in the video. The Treasury: ACTS - The video discusses the Treasury buying its own bonds. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. The Fed: ACTS - The video discusses the Fed's hands being tied. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. Costco: ACTS - Mentioned as a company whose stock is down. Removing it would change what happens in the video. Dollar Tree: ACTS - Mentioned as a company whose stock is down. Removing it would change what happens in the video. Albertsons: ACTS - Mentioned as a company whose stock is down. Removing it would change what happens in the video. Walmart: ACTS - Mentioned as a company whose stock is down. Removing it would change what happens in the video. Staples: ACTS - Mentioned as a company whose stock is down. Removing it would change what happens in the video. Crude: ACTS - The video discusses crude oil prices rising. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. Gold: ACTS - The video discusses gold prices not going down. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. Heating oil: ACTS - The video discusses profit taking in heating oil. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. Distillates: ACTS - The video discusses chaos in distillates. Removing this mention would change what happens in the video. The Crown Macro Letter: ACTS - The video promotes subscribing to this letter. Removing it would change what happens in the video.
Call to action
Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis
On-screen text
"Coming undone"
After the close update
Yesterday, the Treasury
bought its own bonds
to force yields down
And today the market shoved
those yields right back
Well, you get the point.
And this whole thing lasted a mere 24 hours.
The 10 year just closed 470
This erases the entire effect
of the buyback in one session
I can tell you what
didn't like this
even more than
Scott Bessent
and that, my friends,
are stocks.
9 of 11 sectors
finished in the red
And this is a tale as
old as time.
The government can absolutely prop up
its own bond market for a day
but it cannot do it forever.
I talked to a handful of my
PM friends
and they said, the market is
going to test this.
And test it
the market did.
Because you can buy bonds
all day long
But it doesn't solve the fiscal
problem underneath.
Now what's even more interesting
is what's happening in the energy market
at the exact same time
as this failed
buyback scheme.
Crude rose for the fifth straight day.
And this is just causing even
more pressure on rates
the Fed's hands now are duct
taped behind their back.
And to add one more wrinkle
the consumer just cracked.
Costco, the Dollar Tree and
Albertsons all followed
Walmart lower today.
Staples down 1.9%.
Discretionary down 1.8%.
And this is not what
you like to see
from some defensive names
when the rest of the
market is going to be
pressured by rates
and energy.
So investors are scratching
their head here
and saying, well, where the
heck are we going to hide?
And our answer
to this conundrum is
really not in stocks at all.
Because the one thing
that refused to go down today
was gold.
But even beyond precious
metals, one of the most
interesting trades here remains
the distillate trade.
We're talking about
what crude cracks into
The products that you fill up
your car with,
heat your home,
toss into your jet airplane.
These markets are tight.
We saw some profit taking in
heating oil today
that caused a wee
bit of chaos in distillates.
So right now the way to trade
this market is
don't trust the Fed.
Don't trust the Treasury.
And don't trust that this war
is going to end anytime soon.
Our book finishes in the green today
because of the specific asset mix
we are running right now.
And if you want to see
exactly how we're trading it
Comment "LETTER" for
our full market analysis
Educational only. Based on hypothetical model
results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and
limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not
investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell
any security or futures contract.
Our ideas go out to
70,000 subscribers
If you want to get everything
in your inbox,
Comment "LETTER" for
our full market analysis
and we'll send you the link.
Comment "LETTER" for
our full market analysis
Educational only. Based on hypothetical model
results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and
limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not
investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell
any security or futures contract.
And if you want to move the bond market,
you're going to have to spend a lot more
than 4 billion bucks.
Comment "LETTER" for
our full market analysis
Educational only. Based on hypothetical model
results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and
limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not
investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell
any security or futures contract.
Transcript
Yesterday, the Treasury bought its own bonds to force yields down. And today the market shoved those yields right back. Well, you get the point. And this whole thing lasted a mere 24 hours. The 10 year just closed 470. This erases the entire effect of the buyback in one session. I can tell you what didn't like this even more than Scott Bessent, and that, my friends, are stocks. 9 of 11 sectors finished in the red. And this is a tale as old as time. The government can absolutely prop up its own bond market for a day, but it cannot do it forever. I talked to a handful of my PM friends and they said, the market is going to test this. And test it, the market did. Because you can buy bonds all day long, but it doesn't solve the fiscal problem underneath. Now what's even more interesting is what's happening in the energy market at the exact same time as this failed buyback scheme. Crude rose for the fifth straight day. And this is just causing even more pressure on rates. The Fed's hands now are duct taped behind their back. And to add one more wrinkle, the consumer just cracked. Costco, the Dollar Tree and Albertsons all followed. Walmart lower today. Staples down 1.9%. Discretionary down 1.8%. And this is not what you like to see from some defensive names when the rest of the market is going to be pressured by rates and energy. So investors are scratching their head here and saying, well, where the heck are we going to hide? And our answer to this conundrum is really not in stocks at all. Because the one thing that refused to go down today was gold. But even beyond precious metals, one of the most interesting trades here remains the distillate trade. We're talking about what crude cracks into. The products that you fill up your car with, heat your home, toss into your jet airplane. These markets are tight. We saw some profit taking in heating oil today that caused a wee bit of chaos in distillates. So right now the way to trade this market is don't trust the Fed. Don't trust the Treasury. And don't trust that this war is going to end anytime soon. Our book finishes in the green today because of the specific asset mix we are running right now. And if you want to see exactly how we're trading it, Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis. Educational only. Based on hypothetical model results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. Our ideas go out to 70,000 subscribers. If you want to get everything in your inbox, Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis and we'll send you the link. Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis. Educational only. Based on hypothetical model results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. And if you want to move the bond market, you're going to have to spend a lot more than 4 billion bucks. Comment "LETTER" for our full market analysis. Educational only. Based on hypothetical model results, not actual trading. Subject to assumptions and limitations. Not indicative of future results. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract.
