About 50,000 people crossed from Morocco into Ceuta in two days.

SPAIN MOROCCO About 50,000 people crossed from Morocco into Ceuta in two days. TERRAIN - AWS TERRARIUM © OPENSTREETMAP WORLDOVER That is Spain's Interior Ministry estimate. By Friday evening, it said 48,300 had voluntarily returned. These were changing estimates, not an exact count of who remained. CEUTA AUTONOMOUS CITY OF SPAIN 83,595 RESIDENTS - 2025 18.5 KM² AREA ≈8 KM LAND BORDER Ceuta is an autonomous Spanish city on the North African coast with 83,595 officially registered residents. The ministry's estimate equaled almost 60% of that population. Ceuta's president gave a higher estimate, 60,000. People crossed by land and sea. Some swam around the border barriers. AP 31 JUL 2026 09:36 CEST UPDATE 1 AGO 02:56 CEST CEUTA, ESPAÑA 60,000 migrantes cruzan al territorio español de Ceuta, pero muchos regresan voluntariamente Some 60,000 migrants entered Ceuta from Morocco in the previous 24 hours, the Spanish enclave's president said Friday, a figure equivalent to 70% of the autonomous city's usual population. At least 57 migrants Bad on the journey ASSOCIATED PRESS CABLE EN ESPAÑOL 57 DEATHS FRIDAY SNAPSHOT OFFICIAL TOLL ROSE TO 67 ON SATURDAY By Friday, AP reported at least 57 deaths. By Saturday, the Spanish government put the toll at 67. EVIDENCE REVIEW EXPLANATIONS CEUTA - FILE 01 Then came the explanations. 01 - GOVERNMENT CLAIM PEDRO SÁNCHEZ AP SMUGGLERS DISTORTED THE RULING TRIBUNAL SUPREMO SALA DE LO CONTENCIOSO-ADMINISTRATIVO SECCIÓN QUINTA SENTENCIA 814/2026 29 JUN 2026 ECLI:ES:TS:2026:2965 LEGAL DOCTRINE No cabe aplicar la disposición adicional décima de la Ley de Extranjería a las personas que son interceptadas en el mar, al pretender entrar a nado en las ciudades de Ceuta y Melilla; y, por ello, a estas personas no se les debe aplicar el procedimiento de rechazo en frontera, sino el de devolución. Pedro Sánchez claimed smugglers had deliberately misrepresented a Supreme Court ruling. The ruling did not grant residency. It said swimmers intercepted at sea could not be processed under the special border-rejection rule. SUPREME COURT ADMINISTRATIVE CHAMBER SECTION FIVE JUDGMENT 814/2026 29 JUN 2026 ECLI:ES:TS:2026:2965 LEGAL DOCTRINE The tenth additional provision of the Immigration Act cannot apply to people intercepted at sea while attempting to swim into Ceuta or Melilla; therefore, these people must not be subject to border rejection, but to the ordinary return procedure. WHAT THE RULING ACTUALLY CHANGED ORDINARY RETURN PROCEDURE - NOT SUMMARY BORDER REJECTION Instead, the return procedure under Article 58.3 applied. COURT EXCEPTION JUDGMENT 814/2026 PHYSICAL BARRIERS AT SEA COULD MAKE SPECIAL RULE APPLY If physical barriers were installed at sea, the special rule could apply to people crossing them. On Saturday, Spain announced it was installing a 500-meter maritime barrier. FIELD OBSERVATION ASSOCIATED PRESS 31 JUL 2026 WHAT AP SAW AP PHOTO 31 JUL CONTEXT STOOD ASIDE AP WITNESS 30 JUL On Thursday, an AP photographer saw Moroccan gendarmes standing aside as thousands passed into Ceuta. AP PHOTO 31 JUL CONTEXT DISPERSED CROWDS AP REPORT 31 JUL On Friday, AP reported Moroccan forces using tear gas, batons, and water cannons to disperse crowds. AP OBSERVATIONS 30 JUL STOOD ASIDE 31 JUL DISPERSED CROWDS THESE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT ESTABLISH DELIBERATE STATE INTENT Neither observation establishes deliberate state intent. ATTRIBUTED ACCOUNTS AP 31 JUL 2026 WHAT THEY SAID 01 - OFFICIAL POSITION MOROCCO THE AMBASSADOR SAID THE CRISIS UNFOLDED AGAINST RABAT'S WISHES MOROCCO'S AMBASSADOR TO SPAIN VIA AP Morocco's ambassador said the crisis unfolded against Rabat's wishes. 02 - REPORTED ACCOUNTS MIGRANTS MIGRANTS INTERVIEWED BY AP THEY HOPED TO FIND WORK RETURNING AMID MAYHEM ATTRIBUTED ACCOUNT VIA AP Several migrants told AP they had hoped to find work but were returning amid the mayhem. CRISIS SCALE 1 SQUARE = 1 PERSON 10x10 = 100 ARRIVAL ESTIMATE - FRI ≈50,000 MOVING FRIDAY ESTIMATES NOT A VERIFIED COHORT BALANCE FRI VOLUNTARY RETURNS - FRI EVE 48,300 By Friday evening, the return figure nearly matched the ministry's approximate arrival estimate. But this was an evolving snapshot, not a verified balance of who remained. SEPARATE SATURDAY TOLL SAME PERSON SCALE 67 OFFICIAL DEATH TOLL SPANISH GOVERNMENT 5 AUG VIA AP It cannot reverse the deaths, and it still does not establish a single cause for the surge. OFFICIAL STATE GAZETTE REAL DECRETO 316/2026, OF 14 DE ABRIL PUBLISHED 15 APR 2026 BOE-A-2026-8284 DISPOSICIÓN ADICIONAL VIGESIMOPRIMERA las personas extranjeras que se encontraran en España antes del 1 de enero de 2026. e) Haber permanecido en España de forma ininterrumpida durante los cinco meses anteriores al momento de presentar la solicitud de autorización de residencia. Claims that these arrivals could benefit from Spain's regularization program were false. OFFICIAL STATE GAZETTE ROYAL DECREE 316/2026, OF 14 APRIL PUBLISHED 15 APR 2026 BOE-A-2026-8284 TWENTY-FIRST ADDITIONAL PROVISION foreign nationals who were in Spain before 1 January 2026 e) Have remained continuously in Spain for the five months before submitting the residence permit application. PROGRAM RULE AFTER 1 JAN 2026 NOT ELIGIBLE So these arrivals were not eligible under that program. That settles eligibility, not whether publicity influenced perceptions.