THE RUMOR: Anthropic Is Close To Cracking Recursive Self Improvement

The only way to describe it is a bloodbath. Google has lost a bunch of talent in the last 10 days. Nobel prize winning talent, among others. Now, we have seen that talent go to both OpenAI and Anthropic, but I will tell you, most of it has gone to Anthropic. And what that suggests to me, and the rumor going in the valley is that Anthropic has gotten close to cracking recursive self improvement, which means the models themselves drive self improvement. And we've seen that from other labs too. So OpenAI unveiled the Jalapeno Chip, a fantastic name. And they designed it end to end in nine months with AI. And it's something that really is an extremely fast design cycle to, you know, from the design stage to producing a chip. AI, it's just for inference. And so we see these early indicators that AI is effectively helping to generation of AI that we're not slowing down. Uh, and Anthropic is supposed to be where that energy is right now. And so I think that is why a lot of the Google team is headed that way. Uh, I think of the departures I've heard of, all of them except one are headed to Anthropic. And, you know, one is headed to OpenAI. Now, this also suggests that Google is about to release a disappointing model. Because if it was a proud model on the resume, you'd stick around and then you'd leave. But if they're scooting out, it's because the model that Google's about to drop is not about to like dunk on any benchmarks. That's my guess. So it's hard to paint the last 10 days as anything but disastrous to be really honest. Like, they're not winning on the LLM front right now. On the world model front, they have hefty competition from folks like Fei-Fei Li who has her own startup. Are they winning? Are they not worried about winning? Because they think that search is still gonna be around. That's possible. They may have decided the emergency is over, Sergey can go back to the yacht, and it's okay the world's best model. It's unclear, but I think we'll find that out in the next three months. In the meantime, the talent is running to Anthropic. I mean, who wouldn't wanna go? It seems like well, right? I don't know who would turn that out. Uh, you tell me what you think. Anthropic is cracked? Uh, recursive self improvement? Is there another explanation for all this talent flight? Do you think Google's in trouble? Let me know.