SpaceX Earnings

SpaceX reports earnings after the bell today and it's the first earnings release since they went public. Now, there's a lot of things baked into the IPO and we all know it went to 200 or 210 and it's back down to whatever it is, 115. And, you know, you have the lovers, you have the haters, whatever. But today is really where you get a first insight into the earnings as a public company. A couple things to think about in is I really want to understand more about the additional compute that they have and how they're licensing that out. Pre-IPO, there were two deals that were already announced, one was Google for $920 million a month. Now, that contract starts in October and it's a $30 billion overall deal, but the one caveat to that is both SpaceX and Google can back out of that deal within 90 days. So, we'll see what happens there. Likely not going to happen in my opinion, just because the demand for compute is so high and it's so scarce. But if they stick with it, that's a nice runway of $30 billion of revenue going forward. And the other is in Tropic, which was already announced as well, it's $1.25 billion in compute. And that didn't have any clauses. So that seems to be a locked-in amount going forward, which is good. It's a way to generate revenue while other things are kind of working their way through. I think what's going to be important too is understanding Starship as their core product. That's what people are banking on for future earnings. So, an update on when Starship starts to do more commercial launches, when they're actually going to be truly open for business versus test flights. That's going to be important to see. And while the first lockup phase, I believe 5% opens on Friday. Some of it, I think, will be dependent on how well the stock reacts to the earnings. We'll see what happens. Some people will likely cash out. Do I think there's going to be a bloodbath? No, I don't. Because the people that have been in that stock for a long time understand the earnings potential long-term. Will they take some off the table? Likely. And that's, you know, true with any stock when you get that ability. So, I'm not going to be bullish or bearish. I'm not going to be bearish on it. I think for me, it's more of a timing of when do I get in. I'm still not in. I think I'm going to watch early next week after the earnings report and the first lockup, um, you know, is available. I'm going to see how it oscillates and kind of the trading bands and then make my decision. I am getting in, it's just a matter of time. So, what do you think? Do you think they're going to surprise the market or do you think they're going to disappoint like everybody thinks they do?