Hook

Rhode
I'm going to hold your hand while I say this and I'll preface by saying I am not a hater. I totally get why everybody is obsessed with Hailey Bieber's gap club. It's brilliant for gap to capitalize off of these viral cultural moments. But I just I want to look at something really fast. This was in February Hailey Bieber frontin, K and Y spring 2026. Next up, we have St. Lauren. Also spring 2026 but released in April. Next month, in May, we have Hailey Bieber frontin mango. This was their summer 2026 campaign. I'm not done by the way. This is Victoria's Secret, which also came out in May, Caledonia, came out in June. Gorgeous, obviously, she's gorgeous in all of these. I'm still not done. Sis Games, which also came out in June and her campaign or a lie. When I see, Haley Bieber everywhere. I feel like there could be two schools of thought. There's the Bull Case and the bear case. Bull is that Elfbot Road for a billion dollars since then. Road has been the primary engine for Elf's growth story. The brand is growing 80% year over year. And it could be argued that every ad that Haley Bieber does is essentially feeding the founder Halo that Rod is monetizing. One of the other brands are in the beauty category. She's focused on cross-industry ubiquity. Meaning, she stays at the center of culture and with her Rod does as well. Now, the bear case is a little bit more esoteric. Could be argued that Haley Bieber is overexposing herself, which could impact brand recall for Rod and create marketplace confusion, which is essentially when consumers can remember the celebrity but not the product. If Haley Bieber is lending out her brand equity to everybody from Gap, Skims, Victoria Secret, Calzedonia, Mango, where literally only in July in 2026, does that impact the strength of the association between Haley Bieber and Rod. There's also the conversation around celebrity and brand fatigue. The entire premise behind road is that it is a social signal. exclusivity and aspiration are its assets. Now, Eliah and Sanla on side, Gap, Skims, Mango, these are mass tear brands. focus is more so on accessibility versus aspiration. Gogo especially. I think what's interesting here is when road launched on Sephora. Day one road sales accounted for 35% of support sales. insane. but that normalized over about a week to 5%. Can Hailey Bieber and road sustain this durable equity amongst all of these novelty spikes. This is not to say there is a right or a wrong school of thought. I actually fully see bullet sites. It's an interesting discourse, especially when you look at the Joki who between her luxury brand campaigns, which arugably acute, equity and an elevate road. Whereas her more mouse campaigns monetize reach, but I think they're spending her exclusivity. If Haley Bieber becomes too accessible, I think it's fair to argue that there's a dilution risk. But that risk is specifically to the signal or premium for road. Not necessarily to near-term sales. The way I think about it is that reach and rarity are essentially on the same balance sheet. The key is spending one without bankrupting the other.
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